1. Nickel cycle: supply disruptions continue to shape new price highs, and Indonesian policies have long affected nickel prices
By reviewing the LME price of nickel in the past 15 years, it can be found that in the cyclical fluctuations of nickel, the disturbance on the supply side continues to push the nickel price to the top. The last nickel cycle started in 2009. Affected by the loose global liquidity and the strong recovery of the economy, it reached the peak of US$29,000/ton in February 2011. During this period, Indonesia officially banned mining in January 2014. It rebounded and ended with a low price at the end of 2015 triggering smelter production cuts and stockpiling. This round of nickel cycle started in January 2016, during which it was worried about Russian nickel being sanctioned to reduce production (June 2018), Indonesia’s mining ban again (August 2019), domestic nickel mine tensions (February 2021), and deliverables Insufficient supply of pure nickel and fears of Russian nickel being sanctioned (Q1 2022) and other supply-side disturbances continue to push up prices to new peaks.
1.1. The last nickel cycle was driven alternately by financial attributes and industrial product attributes
During the last cycle (2009-2015), the fluctuations in the first half (2009-2011) were mainly driven by the financial attributes of nickel. The macroeconomic fluctuations caused an impact on concerns about economic growth, and inflation also led to a large inflow of safe-haven funds. , resulting in sharp fluctuations in nickel prices. In the second half (2011-2015), in the price fluctuations mainly driven by fundamentals, the supply disturbance caused nickel prices to peak twice in mid-May 2014: In January 2014, Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yuu Doyono officially approved the ore export ban, the flow of nickel ore to Chinese nickel pig iron (NPI) producers was forced to stop, and nickel prices bottomed out, rising sharply after the policy was enacted, from a low of $13,300 in January 2014 / ton, topped to 22,000 US dollars / ton, an increase of up to 65%. After the spot price of nickel fluctuated around the US$20,000/ton mark for nearly 3 months, due to the unacceptable high price on the demand side, and the actual import quantity and grade of nickel ore exceeded expectations, under the weak demand and unable to undertake, the price peaked. fell. Since then, the downward trend has lasted for nearly a year and a half. On November 23, 2015, the nickel price hit a new low since 2003, at US$8,267/ton, a drop of 72% from the peak of the cycle.
1.2. The new nickel price cycle is higher than the previous one, showing a fluctuating upward trend
In this nickel cycle (2016-present), similar to the previous cycle, the four peaks of nickel prices are supply-side disturbances. Different from the previous cycle, the vigorous development of the new energy industry has given good expectations for demand. At the same time, the inventory in the traditional stainless steel field is low and the demand is more rigid. Therefore, the time for the decline and correction of nickel prices in each band is shorter. Re-topping is higher than the previous round, and the duration of the left-end market significantly exceeds the previous cycle.
On March 7, 2022, Lun Nickel closed at a record high of 48,200 yuan/ton. This is the fourth wave of the nickel cycle peaking. The reasons for the rapid peaking of the price in the short term are mainly due to the coordination of futures trading, macroeconomics and fundamentals: on the supply and demand side, the first quarter is the rainy season in the Philippines, and the supply of nickel ore is tight. The Tagaung Taung ferronickel plant in Myanmar will suspend production after the power cut in January. According to the official website, the plant produces 85,000 tons of ferronickel per year and is the country's factory, further exacerbating the uncertainty of nickel supply. On the demand side, after the central bank lowered the policy loan interest rate and promised to take more easing measures to stimulate the economy, the credit crunch pressure on the real estate industry was eased, and stainless steel demand is expected to improve.
On the new energy side, according to the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, China's ternary battery output in 2021 will be 93.9GWh, an increase of 93.6% compared with 2020 production. Entering 2022, under the good expectation of 4680 battery loading and delivery, high nickel demand The boom is expected to continue. The inventory is at a historically low level. According to SMM on March 4, the inventory was only 12,400 tons (including 5,500 tons in the previous period), and the overseas LME inventory was less than 80,000 tons. Insufficient deliverable inventory, superimposed on the macroscopic crisis in Russia and Ukraine, the market is worried about Russian nickel sanctions, and the tightness of the exchange's deliverable inventory has intensified. Under the circumstance that demand is expected to be strong, the uncertainty of supply is increased due to the impact of the geopolitical crisis, and the inventory is at a historically low level, the bulls in the futures market squeezed the short positions, thereby rapidly raising the nickel price in the disk, and the monthly spread of nickel futures contracts has a Back structure. In addition, the premium for the far-month contract increased rapidly, and the price of nickel reached a new high.