1 copper
In the medium term, copper prices have fallen from high levels recently, crude oil has continued to rise, the market is still focused on the Russian-Ukrainian war, foreign inventories have remained low and domestic inventories have accumulated, the current domestic currency margin has improved, and the M2 data in February has fallen. Macroscopic long and short positions are intertwined, domestic short-term demand is still weak, and inventories in the bonded area are accumulating. We will pay attention to the inflection point of inventories later.
Scrap copper fluctuated sharply this week, with prices remaining the same as last week. Affected by the new policy, traders sold goods in advance, resulting in low inventory, and downstream manufacturers demanded strong copper scrap. It is understood that some traders receive more goods than the manufacturer, and the market quotation-price is confusing. At present, the new fiscal and taxation policy has not yet been finalized. It is expected that the price of scrap copper may still be high next week.
2 aluminum
Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has accumulated to 20,000 tons. From a fundamental point of view, aluminum is relatively strong in non-ferrous varieties, domestic demand has begun to decline, inventory has accumulated, foreign lme aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the daily line of aluminum prices has shown a reversal signal. At present, there is no change in fundamentals, foreign fundamentals are good, domestic demand is still weak, and internal and external divisions are differentiated.
This week, scrap aluminum dropped by 600-800 yuan. At present, in East China, aluminum alloy spraying used materials are around 16,500, broken bridges are around 14,900, white materials are around 17,500, and aluminum wires are around 19,000, all of which have dropped from last week. The market has plummeted, many stockholders are reluctant to sell at a loss, and the market supply has tightened again. Manufacturers generally report that the goods are not easy to receive, the inventory of raw materials is low, and the search for goods is active. It is also reported that at present, many aluminum plants still mainly receive goods without tickets, and the supply of goods with tickets is even more tense. Market sentiment has eased, and it is expected that aluminum prices may stop falling and rebound next week. It is expected that scrap aluminum may usher in a recovery next week, mainly on the strong side.
3 Zinc
Affected by the abnormal nickel market this week, the volatility of zinc prices intensified, and the price of zinc in London plummeted after hitting a new high. From a fundamental point of view, domestic consumption has not improved yet. It is expected that the infrastructure construction will be completed in the second quarter, which will drive the demand for zinc. At present, the ratio of internal and external zinc prices has returned, and zinc prices will fluctuate with other non-ferrous varieties.
This week, the trend of tin prices rose first and then declined. Due to the tense situation in Russia-Ukraine relations and the suspension of domestic and foreign nickel markets, the market's aversion to suspicion has heated up. It is understood that the operating capacity of MSC, the world's third largest refined tin manufacturer, has basically recovered, but the overall supply is still tight. Due to the impact of the epidemic in Myanmar, domestic tin concentrate imports are still tight, and tin stocks are still at a historically low level.
4 Lead
This week, the LME market fluctuated abnormally with the risk of metal plates. The lead market first rose and then fell. The London lead earthquake and Shanghai lead fell relatively little. The situation in Russia and Ukraine remains uncertain and an agreement has not yet been reached. From a fundamental point of view, domestic consumption is weak, but it is expected that the battery industry will rebound in the second quarter, driving lead prices.
This week, the lead price kept falling for 4 consecutive years, and the mainstream price fell to around 15050. The overall trend of waste batteries is relatively stable. Due to the implementation of the new tax reform policy, many manufacturers implement ticket prices, but the waste battery recycling terminal said that delivery with tickets is difficult, so The overall arrival of manufacturers is relatively small. At present, many manufacturers still implement two kinds of delivery measures. In order to increase the arrivals in Henan, the price of electric vehicle waste batteries has been raised to 8,850 yuan / ton. It is expected that the waste batteries will continue to perform strongly next week.
5 Nickel
Due to the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the export of nickel in Russia has been blocked, and the price of nickel has continued to soar. As the price of nickel has continued to soar, it has been separated from the fundamentals of supply and demand. The LME decided to cancel the on- and off-site trading of London nickel on March 8, and the outer market of London nickel was closed. With the release of the domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange on March 9, the notice on the suspension of trading in some nickel futures contracts. In addition, suppressed by the bad news, the main force of Shanghai Nickel resumed the limit-down after the opening, and did not break the limit-down until the close. In the later period, we need to pay close attention to the relevant market trends.